Values and Leverage: Week 13 (FanDuel)
Fantasy writer Andrew Diaz takes you through value plays on the FanDuel slate for week 13 in the NFL
In this article, we will spotlight the best buy low players for each week and identify some of the strongest contrarian plays to create leverage, build more unique lineups, and pivot away from the field. Buy low players are usually victims of circumstance whether it be from difficult matchups, game script, or injuries. As a result, their price will plummet. We will want to take advantage of this discount and utilize their low cost to afford the safer, higher priced players. As for the leverage we seek, it will not come from high volatility players. On the contrary, these will be players with high ceilings and stable offensive roles; They just may not be as obvious a play as some of their chalkier counterparts. With that established, let’s take a look at Week 13 on FanDuel.
Derek Carr ($7,500)- While it may seem counterintuitive recommending a quarterback who will be without his best offensive weapon (Darren Waller), Carr is still in a smash spot this week. Although Waller has garnered the most attention leading the team in targets (84), slot-man and true number one receiver, Hunter Renfrow, is not far behind (82). Looking deeper, both Waller and Renfrow are tied in redzone targets (11), yet Renfrow has been the superior threat catching 81 percent of those compared to Waller’s 45 percent. So, while the field may be apprehensive, Carr should not be any worse for wear, especially since he gets a home matchup vs Washington, a team who has given up the most passing touchdowns this season.
Odell Beckham Jr. ($6,000)- Not since 2015 has anyone been excited to start Odell, and rightfully so. He’s a diva. He’s unpredictable. He just got released from the Browns. I get it and I don’t like it either, but the numbers speak for themselves. Last week, in his second game with the Rams, Beckham caught 5 of 10 targets (24 percent target share) for 81 yards and a touchdown. He also ran a route on 98 percent of Matthew Stafford’s drop backs. With Robert Woods out for the season, ODB is now the de facto number two behind stud receiver Cooper Kupp, and at just $6,000 Beckham’s floor is all but guaranteed.
Antonio Gibson ($6,200)- Gibson received a massive workload last week versus Seattle with 36(!) touches. Of those 36, seven were receptions. Now with J.D McKissic out, it is wheels up for the second year running back. If the workload wasn’t enough to sway you, he’s priced at an absurd $6,200. If you need even more convincing, he also faces a Raiders team who are allowing the fifth most FanDuel points to running backs this season. Gibson should be chalk but he is probably chalk you do not want to fade. Consider him a free space on your bingo board.
George Kittle ($6,300)- Not many tight ends can break the slate like George Kittle. He came into the fantasy season ranked third at the position and that was with a healthy Deebo Samuel present. Now that Deebo is set to miss this week’s matchup, Kittle should be in line for a huge game. He has scored a touchdown in three of his last four outings and now faces Seattle’s zone defense which has bled points to receivers over the middle. Specifically, Seattle allows the sixth most receptions to tight ends and given Kittle has received a 25 percent target share when the 49ers play a zone defense, it is finally time for him to be welcomed back into the circle of trust. Let the field look to cheaper options like Foster Moreau and take the lower owned Kittle.