Spread the Love: Wild Card NFL Picks ATS
Best bets against the spread for wild card weekend in the NFL
We finished off the regular season with a bang, navigating the rested starters and must win teams to a 10-5-1 record week 18, our best finish of the season. We went 2-0-1 on our “Best Bets”. The Chargers and Cardinals easily covered, but the Bengals couldn’t finish off the Steelers by more than 2 points, so we got the tie.
Now for the fun part of the season: Playoffs! I won’t pick 3 “Best Bets” during the playoffs because there are only going to be 6 or less games from here on out. So I’ll only give a best bet if I feel a strong lean. I have more than one this week.
For the Super Bowl, I’ll only have one pick (duh) so that will indeed be my best bet of that week, but I may throw some prop bets in there to keep things interesting. More on that in a few weeks. We got some wild card games to bet.
Someone call the sportsbook cocktail waitress, I need a beverage.
All lines as of 5pm pacific time 1/8/25
LAC -2.5 @ HOU: *BEST BET* Want a cool stat? The Chargers gave up the lowest total points in the NFL this season with just 301. The Texans, by contrast, not only gave up 372 points, but scored only 372. They are limping into the playoffs having lost 2 of their last 4 and getting bit by the injury bug on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, the Chargers are riding a 3 game win streak. The Texans do have a legit (top 3) pass defense, but with the return of JK Dobbins and, to a lesser degree, the signing of Ezekiel Elliott, the Texans will have to account for the ground game.
The Chargers defense has been stingy and should match up well with the Houston offensive line, who has had CJ Stroud running for his life to close the season. He’s taken 11 sacks in his last 3 full games (he played one drive week 18). Look for the Chargers to control the clock and bleed out the Texans.
Chargers 24 - Texans 18
PIT +9.5 @ BAL: We’ve seen this movie, this season, twice before. They are division rivals with head coaches who know each other very well. Their first meeting this season was in Pittsburg and the Steelers won 18-16. Then they got trounced in Week 16 in Baltimore, 34-17. Both teams finished the season with their arrows pointing in different directions: Steelers have 4 straight losses while the Ravens have 4 straight wins.
Lamar Jackson has been hot, running the ball at will and protecting it (he has just one turnover since Week 11). Russell Wilson, meanwhile, has looked cooked (trite metaphor, I know). He can’t get it going with his best receiver George Pickens, who is struggling with a hamstring injury. The Steelers ground game has not been clicking either, while Derrick Henry has been improving as the season wears on. He finished Week 18 with his 3rd straight game of 138 rushing yards or more. There is no way the Steelers win this. BUT, this is the playoffs. Teams are now playing for their lives. This is a storied rivalry and 9.5 points is too much, Week 16 blowout notwithstanding. Give me the Steelers to turn it on and cover, barely.
Ravens 26 - Steelers 17
DEN +8.5 @ BUF: When I was a young lad, I figured out that if you hit a turtle coming down the stairs at the end of world 3-1 in Super Mario Bros at just the right time, you can get unlimited free lives by simply bouncing on his shell over and over. Once I cracked that, I would speed run the rest of the game with confidence knowing that if I died, I would have over 100 chances at a “do over”. I feel like Bo Nix and the Broncos are in a similar situation.
Nobody had them making the playoffs this season. Heck, nobody had them winning 6 games (I took the over on 5.5 Denver wins on a betting slip in Vegas last summer- ca-ching!). They are now playing with house money, or with the proverbial 100 free lives. Bo Nix and company will probably play footloose and fancy free, like 12 year old me speed running Mario Bros, and make key mistakes. The Bills will not be giving them extra lives though. The Broncos have no run game and a so-so pass offense. They have won on defense and it will be put to the ultimate test against the would-be MVP. Josh Allen will move the football at will up and down the field. Btw, James Cook quietly scored 15 rush TD’s this season, so it ain’t just Josh. The rookie Nix coming to Buffalo, in the snow, with those fans, against a Bills team that is starving for a Super Bowl, will walk into a freezing cold buzzsaw. The Bills should win by double digits.
Bills 28 - Broncos 18
GB +5 @ PHI: *BEST BET* Why in holy heck did the Packers play Jordan Love Week 18? They weren’t playing for enough to risk the oft injured QB’s health. Sure as shit, Love hurt his elbow, Christian Watson tore his ACL, and the Pack didn’t even get the W.
The Eagles did the opposite and rested their starters, even at the cost of the all time rushing record for Saquon Barkley. Super Bowls are more important than personal records. These teams faced each other Week 2 in Brazil and the Eagles won. In that same game Saquon Barkley scored 3 TD’s. Barkley should be rested and ready to repeat that. Love will likely play, but with an injury that left his right hand numb, and one less receiver, they’ll have a tough time keeping up with the Eagles. The Philly O-line is one of the best and should give Jalen Hurts plenty of time to hit AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith when he is not handing it off to Barkely or taking off himself. Hurts hasn’t played since Week 16 due to concussion protocol. He is practicing and working with the first team so it looks like he is a go. Lay the wood while the line is still under 6.
Eagles 30 - Packers 23
WAS +3 @ TB: It’s the battle of the two Heisman trophy winners! It’s also the highest over/under of the week, set at 50.5. The last time these two teams faced each other in the playoffs, Tom Brady was still the Bucs starting QB. It was 2020 and Tampa Bay not only won the playoff game, they went on to win the Super Bowl. I don’t see a Super Bowl in Baker Mayfield’s near future, but I wouldn’t be shocked at another Bucs win over the Commanders. Mike Evans was part of that 2020 squad and coming off his 11th straight 1,000 yard season he has some serious momentum.
The Commanders could stymie Evans if Marshon Lattimore plays, which is looking likely. If so, the Bucs can rely on Bucky Irving as the Commanders run defense is bottom 5. Bucky finished the season with games of 113 and 89 ground yards, albeit against the Panthers and the Saints. Jayden Daniels will move the ball too. The Bucs are very generous to opposing QBs and Daniels’ connection with Terry McLaurin should be on full display. This should be a tight one, but I have to give the advantage to the home team, who averaged 399.5 yards per game in the regular season and will make the Commanders feel every inch of that. That’s what she said.
Buccaneers 29 - Commanders 25
MIN -1 @ LAR: The Vikings lost to just 2 teams this season. Know who? They lost to the Lions twice and… wait for it… the Rams.
Week 8 had the Rams take down the Vikings at SoFi 30-20. It was the return of Puka Nacua who had missed 6 weeks with injury. He then hung 7 catches for 106 yards on the Minnesota secondary. But, like I said, that was just one of three total losses. The Vikings were the second best team in the NFC. They were one win away from being the number 1 seed, but now return to SoFi to face the surging Rams, who rested their starters Week 18. The good thing for the Vikings is that they got thrashed in Detroit last week so they should be wide awake for this one. This is the toughest game to call and the spread of one single point shows that. Matt Stafford has “been there done that”. He’s a Super Bowl champion, as are Sean McVay, Cooper Kupp, and a few other left overs from their run in 2022.
That experience has got to count for something. And they’re home. But the Sam Darnold resurrection has been such a great story and Justin Jefferson has played his arse off. You want to see the Vikings get to the next round for the story. If only we could win with our hearts. We can’t, so I gotta be ruthless here and take the points with the home team. Since the spread is 1, it’s a toss up, so I’m picking a straight up winner. I hope I’m wrong. I wouldn’t bet this with real money. Ugh! Give me the Rams who should upset the Vikings. I feel so dirty.
Rams 28 - Vikings 27