Spread the Love: Week 18 NFL Picks ATS

NFL picks and "Best Bets" against the spread

I took week 17 off. Big loss in your worlds, dear readers, I know. It wasn’t because I went 7-9 the week before either. It was due to a pre-planned family vacation in Hawaii.

I picked the weirdest week to miss though. Football started on Christmas day, which was Wednesday, so by the time we got to Sunday it felt like a totally different week. Note to Roger Goodell: I am sure it’s big advertising dollars, but do NOT start a football week on a Wednesday. Ever again. Thanks.

Anyway, we had a blast and thankfully missed the aforementioned week day games and a whole lot of real life weirdness. Did I read correctly that conspiracy theorists were positing that nationwide fog earlier this week was man-made and making people sick? WTF?

Thank God I was on an island. The only fog I experienced in Hawaii was the fog my brain flooded my consciousness with when I saw the final hotel bill. Holy shit. But what is the price of seeing the smiles on my sons’ faces as we were soaking up the sun and salt water every day in our own piece of paradise?

Still, we have to pay the mortgage, so when we got home I told my kids the same thing my wife once told me one special night, many years ago, “I'm glad you enjoyed it, but it was a one time thing and we will never do it again.”

Happy new year and on to week 18!

All lines as of 5pm pacific time 1/1/25

CLE +17.5 @ BAL: The Browns upset victory over the Ravens in week 8 seems like such a simpler time. Jameis Winston was thanking God for the football weather, the Ravens secondary was still trash, and nobody knew that Bailey Zappe was still playing in the NFL. Now Jameis Winston is riding the pine, Baltimore has held their last three opponents to 17 or less points, and it’s confirmed that Bailey Zappe is not only still playing in the NFL, but he may start for the Browns. Lol. The Ravens need to keep that No. 3 seed, so they should go full “nevermore” on the Browns. Take Baltimore.

Ravens 28 - Browns 10

CIN -2 @ PIT: *BEST BET* If the Ravens win, the Steelers ostensibly have nothing to play for. So the only motivation they’d have would be to play spoiler to any chance of a Bengals wild card berth. They beat Cincy in a barn burner week 13, but these are different teams now. The Steelers are on a three game skid, while the Bengals have won four in a row. Joe Burrow has been locked in and with Cincinnati’s playoff hopes hanging by a thread, look for all frosted tips, no breaks in this one.

Bengals 27 - Steelers 20

NYG +2.5 @ PHI: The Eagles are resting their starters, which sucks because Saquon Barkley is just 101 yards away from Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record. Super Bowl trophies are more important than records, I suppose, but that would have been pretty cool for Barkley. With Philly laying down and Drew Lock auditioning for his next back up gig (5 total TD’s last week?!?), take the Giants who may pull out a cheap win.

Giants 18 - Eagles 17

CHI +10 @ GB: There was a New Year’s Day Twilight Zone marathon and it made me think of this very matchup. Why? I have a feeling some really weird shit is about to go down. The Bears might actually win this. Ok they probably won’t, but I can see a cover. This spread is a little wide considering Green Bay is not going anywhere with a win and Bears brass should let Caleb Williams have one last chance to show Chi fans that he was not a wasted pick. Williams’ record breaking sacks taken aside, he has only thrown 6 picks on the season and is always capable of airing it out (four 300+ yard games). He has more pass yards on the season than Jordan Love, by the way (yeah, yeah, Love was injured for a few games). I don’t see the Packers risking their health just to embarrass a division rival, so if the starters play, it should be cameos at best. The Bears, on the other hand, should be competitive and finish the season strong.

Packers 24 - Bears 17

CAR +8 @ ATL: For all the hope that Michael Penix has given Flacons fans over the last two weeks, his totals are underwhelming (425 pass yards, TD, 2 INT, 2 sacks, 3 rush yards). Meanwhile, Bryce Young has gone from bad to slightly less bad. The return of Adam Thielen has facilitated much of that “improvement”. The Falcons may darn well win this. They are in a must win situation. But the scrappy Panthers won’t go down without a fight, as has been their narrative over the last half of the season (blowout loss to Tampa Bay last week aside). Grab the points with Carolina.

Falcons 27 - Panthers 20

NOR +13.5 @ TB: Baker Mayfield is having a career year. He and the Bucs are coming off a blowout of the Panthers and are still in must win territory. Mayfield tossed 5 TD’s versus Carolina last week. The only secondary that has been worse than the Panthers is the Saints. The Raiders just hung 25 on them. Tampa Bay is home and should take care of business on both sides of the ball as Spencer Rattler has thrown more picks (3) than TD’s (2) since retaking the starting job three weeks ago. Look for the Bucs to pillage and plunder on their way to locking down the NFC South title.

Buccaneers 30 - Saints 14

WAS -4.5 @ DAL: Cooper Rush and the Cowboys already beat the Commanders on the road in week 12. Are these teams really that different six weeks later? Philly just blew out the Cowboys but Philly is a Super Bowl caliber team. The Commanders are not. Eagles loss aside, Rush has been more than decent in relief of Dak Prescott and the Commanders secondary is nothing to write home about. Jayden Daniels may very well win the ROY award, but the Commanders will not beat the Cowboys, in AT&T stadium, by anything more than a field goal.

Commanders 24 - Cowboys 21

JAX +4.5 @ IND: This is a nothing burger of a game so I’m not sure how Vegas figured this spread out. The Colts don’t know who is going to start at QB. Will it be Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco? I don’t think it matters. In a game like this, I look at best player versus best player and it ain’t the QB’s. Jonathan Taylor has decided to finish the season with three monster games in a row, rushing for 450 yards and 5 TD’s in that span. Meanwhile, Jags rookie Brian Thomas has had a fine three weeks himself, catching 26 passes for 328 yards and 4 TD’s. This should be as close as that comparison so give me Jacksonville to cover.

Colts 23 - Jaguars 21

HOU -1 @ TEN: The Titans are going to split reps at QB between Mason Rudolph and Will Levis. My question is, why? Is coach Brian Callahan reverting to peewee rules now and making sure everyone gets to play? Neither of those QB’s are the future, so why bother? The Texans, meanwhile, have nothing to play for and could use the rest, even though coach DeMeco Ryans has been coy about it. The Titans are so bad that Ryans can put their practice squad out there and win. It’s over in Tennessee. Hopefully the Titans still get a pizza party afterwards.

Texans 20 - Titans 18

BUF -2.5 @ NE: The Bills have nothing to play for. They’re locked in at No. 2 seed. The Patriots do have something to play for, but it will only come with a loss. Does that make sense? They get the number 1 overall pick in next spring’s draft with a loss. I’ve heard of teams tanking for (insert first overall pick) in the past, but I’ve never actually seen a team actively tank so look for the Pats to stay competitive. Do you really think Drake Maye will lose on purpose so the Pats can draft his replacement? Puh-lease. Buffalo will “start” Josh Allen, but all signs point to a short outing. That goes for all Bills starters. Number one pick or not, Drake Maye can win against Mitchell Trubisky and a bunch of guys. Give me the Pats to win in an “upset”.

Patriots 19 - Bills 17

KC +10.5 @ DEN: I placed a 7/1 bet in August on KC having the most regular season wins in the NFL. So I have some skin in this game. But if I’m being realistic, this is the Broncos’ game to lose. They are coming off an OT loss to the red hot Bengals and now face KC, who will officially be resting their starters. On top of that, the Broncos and their stout, quick defense are playing at Mile High. The last time they faced each other, it was at Arrowhead and the final was 16-14 Chiefs. The Broncos should easily take the W and punch their ticket to the playoffs. But can a Carson Wentz led Chiefs team cover? Wentz is no slouch, but Denver is 11-5 ATS this season, an AFC best. I’m not fighting that, especially when the Broncos are home and playing against scrubs.

Denver 24 - Chiefs 13

SF +4 @ AZ: *BEST BET* Who knew the 49’ers would not only miss the playoffs, but they’d be flirting with a last place NFC West finish by week 18? I haven’t had a hangover like that since my college roommate introduced me to Southern Comfort at a frat party (I can’t even smell that to this day without gagging). To add to their late season skid, Brock Purdy is out, Joshua Dobbs is in. Yeah, no need to overthink this one. I’m laying the wood here. Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. will put on a fireworks show for the home fans in the finale. Fun fact: Harrison needs 178 yards to hit the 1,000 mark. Think Murray will target him?

Cardinals 23 - 49’ers 16

MIA -1 @ NYJ: The Jets have packed it in. Aaron Rodgers was one TD away from 500 and couldn’t throw a single score last week in Buffalo. His QB rating was 1.2. Read that again. To illustrate how broken Aaron Rodgers truly is, Tyrod Taylor came in the 4th quarter and tossed 2 TD’s posthaste. The Jets will start Rodgers again, no doubt to help him hit that elusive 500 TD mark, but they are cooked. The Dolphins must win to have any shot at the post season (they also need a Broncos loss, not bloody likely), but they’ll have to do it with Tyler Huntley at the helm as Tua Tagovailoa is trending toward missing his second straight game. Huntley should be fine as he dismantled the Browns last week. Frankly, the Jets are such a mess that the Dolphins can start Dan Marino and get the dub. Take Miami.

Dolphins 21 - Jets 17

SEA -6.5 @ LAR: Too bad the Seahawks are out of contention. This could have been a great matchup. Oh well. Rams fans, get out those Jimmy Garoppolo jerseys! The Rams are set for the playoffs so they are resting their starters, hence the Seahawks are favored and we get a Jimmy G sighting. I don’t see the ‘Hawks not winning by at least a touchdown. Zach Charbonnet has looked great in relief of Kenneth Walker, who hit IR. Geno Smith still has his weapons out wide as well. Let’s roll with Seattle to take the Rams’ B-team down in a layup.

Seahawks 21 - Rams 14

LAC -5 @ LV: *BEST BET (if Chargers play starters, as is the most likely scenario)* The Chargers want this victory as a win will give them the No. 5 seed and a matchup versus the Texans instead of the Ravens. Their defense has given up the least amount of points of any NFL team and should befuddle Aidan O’Connell into some bad decisions. It looks like the starters will play for Los Angeles and if so, look for a rout. If you’re a Raider fan, this may be your last chance to see Antonio Pierce holding the clipboard for Las Vegas. Cherish it.

Chargers 31 - Raiders 10

MIN +3 @ DET: The battle for the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the NFC is obviously the game of the week. It’s hard to believe that Sam Darnold was wandering around the league as a Jet, a Panther, and a 49’er before settling in Minnesota to take the Vikings to the playoffs. Now he is up against fellow first rounder Jared Goff for all the NFC marbles. The Lions have been playing out of their minds, but the injuries keep piling up. They have failed to cover the spread in 4 of 5 games before week 16. The Vikings have cleaned up on defense lately, but still are not the stout D they were in the beginning of the season. I wouldn’t touch this game in real life, but in the spirit of calling every game, give me the Vikings who keep it close in a nail biter. Take the points, get some popcorn, and enjoy the show.

Lions 31 - Vikings 29