Spread the Love: Super Bowl Props and Picks
Super Bowl prop bets and the final “Best Bet” of the NFL season
In last week’s Conference Championship article I suggested you read my picks then do the opposite because I had been on the wrong side of every game in the divisional round. Turns out you would have made some serious Robert DeNiro had you followed that advice. I ate crow yet again across the board. I think this winter weather has put me on a cold streak. Brrrr 🥶
I took the Commanders +6 versus a very chippy, powerhouse Eagles team that ended up lapping them by multiple scores. Jayden Daniels and Washington are a lot of fun to watch and have a bright future (so long as Jayden doesn’t pull a C.J. Stroud), but Philly is in a class above them and it showed. And ohhhhh that Saquon Barkley.
My dumb ass then took the Bills getting 1.5 points at KC, going against my own call from way back in week 5 when I predicted the Chiefs would once again snatch the AFC crown. The Bills were a Dalton Kincaid catch away from getting into field goal range to tie it up, but came up short.
For the big one, I am not going against the grain. The Chiefs have the secret sauce for victory. I am picking them to win. More on that in a minute. First…
What is the Super Bowl without sloppy, messy, delicious food (make mine a big bowl of spicy ass chili), cold beverages, and making stupid bets with friends and family with crumpled up dollars you found in your jeans pockets? How about some prop bets?!?
The following are some select calls for Super Bowl 59 propositions:
Prop: Will the coin toss be heads or tails? Call: Heads.
They say “tails never fails”, but fuck that. It’s 2025. Shit’s crazy. Take heads!
Prop: Will the National Anthem be over/under 120 seconds? Call: Under.
2 of the last 4 National Anthem’s have gone over 120 seconds, so this could go either way. This year Jon Batiste is signing it. I caught a video of him doing the honors for an NBA game in 2017. It took him a full 2 minutes or 120 seconds to sing it, but he had a piano so he vamped for 30 seconds before he started the lyrics. Not counting piano, from the first word to the last it was about 96 seconds. So if the over/under is set at 120 seconds, take the under. Unless he trots out that damned piano, then slam the over.
Prop: Who will score the first TD’s for each team? Call: Saquon Barkley and Travis Kelce.
Not sure if you have been paying attention but Saquon Barkley has scored 5x over the last two playoff games, so that’s the easy money. Travis Kelce is more of a feels bet. He has scored 2 TD’s in the 4 Super Bowls he has played in, but this may be his last before he rides off into the sunset with Taylor Swift. So I say he scores one last time and it will be on the Chiefs first drive. Speaking of Taylor…
Prop: Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift? Call: No.
This prop bet has popped up in a few spots. I’m taking the “no” because I am pretty sure this is a fake relationship for PR, bought and paid for by [redacted], and it’s on its last legs. Call me a conspiracy theorist all you want, but I feel like Travis/Taylor is for the cameras, hence no cringy proposal when the Chiefs win.
Prop: What color will the Gatorade be? Call: Red
As you will read more about below, I am calling for a Chiefs win, hence classic red Gatorade. Although last time the Chiefs faced the Eagles it was purple.
I’m still going with red. A win means a 3-peat. So it’s all red everything!
Prop: Who will be the SB MVP? Call: Patrick Mahomes/Saquon Barkley.
If you are on the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes is the call. He is the face of the Chiefs (and State Farm) and the force behind their offense. If you are on the Eagles, go with Saquon Barkley. He has been in beast mode since the wild card round and will score multiple times. Again.
That’s all for props. Now for the final “Best Bet” of the season…
KC -1.5 vs. PHI (O/U 49): Close your eyes. Think back to a simpler time. It’s February of 2023 and the Chiefs and Eagles are about to face off in Super Bowl 57. They were virtually the same teams who will play this Sunday in Super Bowl 59.
In 2023, KC had Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, and Travis Kelce. Philly had Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, and … Miles Sanders?!? So maybe they aren’t the exact same teams, but I do see a similar outcome. Even with X-factor Saquon Barkley wearing green, the Chiefs should book the NFL’s first ever…
Philadelphia will be a tough out. Saquon has been on a tear. He’s running angry and he wants all the smoke. Hell, AJ Brown had time to start a book club on the sideline during wild card week. That’s how good Saquon Barkley has been. He’s scored 5 times in the last two weeks and rushed for 323 yards in that span. The Chiefs have given up 296 rush yards in their two playoff games so far, so look for Barkley and Jalen Hurts to move chains with their legs. But can they do more than run?
The Eagles’ passing game has been inconsistent as of late. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith were invisible for both the wild card and divisional rounds. Brown was finally involved last week when he caught 6 for 96 and a score, but before that no Eagles receiver topped more than 55 yards in any playoff game. Though to be fair, with the way Barkley and Hurts have been running the ball, they haven’t had to.
Patrick Mahomes will need to turn on the playoff magic if he and the Chiefs want to stand toe to toe with the Eagles’ high powered ground game. I think Mahomes will do just that. His season started with a 15:11 TD:INT ratio through the first 11 weeks. Since then he has thrown zero interceptions to 13 TD’s, a vast improvement.
The Eagles may have upgraded at RB, but so have the Chiefs. Kareem Hunt was in Cleveland in 2023, now he’s a Chief again. At 29, he has added a veteran presence and stability that Isiah Pacheco couldn’t. Hunt has scored in each of the last 4 games in which the starters played. I don’t see that streak ending this Sunday.
Speaking of guys who were not around in 2023, Xavier Worthy quietly led the Chiefs in receiving versus the Bills, catching 6 for 85 and a TD. He will keep the Eagles’ secondary honest, though last week they didn’t have a problem keeping a lid on Terry McLaurin. No matter because I think the Eagles have a different Chief to worry about, more so than Worthy.
The problem for the Eagles last week was Zach Ertz, a veteran tight end who made the tough catches and finished with 100+ yards and a score. Think Travis Kelce’s gonna eat? Kelce should give Philly the same problems Ertz did and lead KC in receiving. He had 6 for 81 and a TD the last time they met the Eagles in the Super Bowl. I see that as his floor.
Now let’s talk defense. The Eagles forced 4 turnovers last week versus a more-mobile-than-Mahomes Jayden Daniels. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chiefs gave up the ball multiple times versus Philly’s excellent defense. But Mahomes magic is a thing. You can blame the refs, or his flopping, or his slick way of evading the pass rush to make that last minute throw, but he’s proven that he knows how to win under pressure. That sounds cliche, but cliches are only cliches because they’re true.
As for the Chief’s D, Steve Spagnuolo’s squad has looked the part all season too. Chris Jones has been lights out (when not injured) and gave Josh Allen all kinds of fits last week. However, with the over/under being 49, this should not be a low scoring defensive game. The offenses on both sides will be the story and I see the Chiefs being just a little more dynamic in that area, especially if the Eagles’ passing game stays in neutral.
I would love to see the confetti raining on a smiling Saquon Barkley because of the season he has had (just as I wanted Josh Allen to win the AFC title last week), but the reality is that this is the Andy Reid era. He has had two weeks to prepare for this rematch and will have his men locked in. As a Charger fan, I hate to say it, but come Sunday the Chiefs will take their 3rd straight Super Bowl title.
I’m gonna need an extra spicy pot of chili.
Chiefs 27 - Eagles 25