Spread the Love: NFL Divisional Round

NFL Divisional Round picks against the spread

We split last week right down the middle going 3-3 overall and 1-1 on our best bets. Everyone had the Chargers winning so I don’t feel bad about that as a bettor, but I do feel bad about that as a fan. Chargers love rug pulling the fans and I have lived through a lot of rug pulls. Mostly by way of Philip Rivers, that overly procreating son of a bitch.

Curiously, every team that lost in the wild card round, except the Steelers, had to play their starters Week 18 and face a team that was able to rest their starters. The Chargers had to secure their seeding so they were all systems go Week 18, while Houston rested. Denver had to beat the KC backups to make the playoffs, Buffalo rested. Green Bay played their starters Week 18, though it was by choice, while Philly rested, even to the detriment of the all time rushing record by Saquon Barkley. Tampa Bay had to win to make the playoffs, while the Commanders’ starters didn’t play the full game. Every rested team won.

The most disappointing loss came Monday night when the Vikings got smoked by the Rams. The Rams had locked up the NFC West so Matt Stafford and company got to chill on the sidelines in the final week of the regular season. Meanwhile the Vikings had a mini-playoff game versus the Detroit Lions for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They battled it out until the final whistle, lost, and then had to face the Rams “on the road” (in Phoenix) in round one. I’m not making excuses for the Vikes, but that last game with the Lions has to factor into why they looked so logy. The 9 sacks taken by Sam Darnold didn’t help either.

That’s football! On to the divisional round.

All lines as of 12pm pacific time 1/17/25

HOU +8.5 @ KC (o/u 41.5): The Houston defense came to play against the Chargers and bottled them up to the tune of just 12 points. Nobody gave them a chance, but looking back on their season it should have been clear that Houston was going to hang around.

The Texans went 10-7, but their losses were to some notable teams: Vikings, Packers, Jets, Lions, Titans, Chiefs, Ravens. The Jets loss was in a Thursday night matchup on Halloween. Thursday’s are always unpredictable. The Titans are a division rival, splitting the series is not unthinkable. All other 5 losses were to playoff teams, one of which was the Chiefs who beat them by 8.

The Chiefs have a great defense and have relied more on that than Patrick Mahomes’ arm to win 15 games this year. Chris Jones should give CJ Stroud a whole lot of problems behind that paper thin offensive line. But don’t count out the Houston defense. They were 5th overall in the NFL in sacks with 49. They should make Mahomes work for every yard.

I can see this being a low scoring affair (it’s the lowest over/under of the weekend) and the Chiefs winning by less than a TD. So I guess we are grabbing the points with the Houston Texans. Could they pull the upset special again? They did beat the Bills way back in Week 5. Just sayin’.

Chiefs 21 - Texans 17

WSH +9.5 @ DET (o/u 55.5): If the Chiefs/Texans game is going to be a slow, defensive slugfest, the Commanders/Lions should be a fast, pass heavy fireworks show. This is the highest over/under of the weekend at 55.5. The Detroit Lions may score all 55.5 of those. Ok, maybe not all 55, but they did lead the league in points scored this season with 33.2 per game.

Jayden Daniels has had some improbable wins this season, capping it off last week when they upset the Buccaneers in Tampa. Keeping up with that high powered Lions offense will be a whole other animal. Literally. Detroit also gets David Montgomery back. He will join Jahmyr Gibbs in chewing up that clock and demoralizing the Commanders D.

The Lions needed the rest and should come out ready to roar. It’s the biggest spread of all four playoff games, but if any team can cover a double digit spread, it’s Detroit.

Lions 32 - Commanders 21

LAR +6 @ PHI (o/u 43.5): *Best Bet* How about a good ol’ football game in the snow? It’s happening. Does that mean these teams will rely on their running games and defenses to win? Yup. Do they both have great run games and top shelf defenses? Yup. And before you tell me how the Rams defense has been had several times this year, consider this: LA’s defense has held its last four opponents to fewer than 10 points when not resting its starters. They sacked Sam Darnold 9x last week proving you can take the man out of the Jets but you can’t take the Jets out of the man (burn!).

Philly’s o-line is nowhere near what Minnesota’s is. In fact, it’s in the top 3. So I don’t see the Rams sacking Jalen Hurts. They got to him just once in their last meeting Week 12, when the Rams lost 37-20.

The Eagles defense, the best in the league, is what we need to look out for here. They don’t put pressure on the QB, but they are excellent against the pass. Read: The Rams will need to rely on Kyren Williams even more. The Eagles should run a whole lot as well. It’s what they do, with or without snow, as they lead the league in rush attempts with 621.

With all this running and defense, it should be a close one. As such, I will take those points with the Rams. I still see Philly winning this outright, so Eagles fans please don’t call me a dumb c**t.

Eagles 23 - Rams 20

BAL -1 @ BUF (o/u 51.5): This is the game of the week right here. We have two stud QB’s who, depending who you ask, are both shoe-ins for MVP. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have a combined 86 TD’s and just 10 picks. So as a fan, this one is going to be fun to watch. As a bettor, this spread is maddening. Like the front runner for MVP, this game is basically a pick ‘em.

The Ravens beat the Bills back in Week 4 by 25 points (35-10), but it was in Baltimore. They are in Buffalo now and it’s January. The Bills are 9-0 at home and it’s a whole lot colder in western NY. Not that the Ravens are afraid of the cold. They have a run game with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry that will make grown men cry frozen tears. They led the NFL in rush yards per game with 193.8, almost 60 yards more than Buffalo, who averaged 135.6. A lot of those rush yards are from Josh Allen. Buuuut, Ravens allow the 6th fewest rush yards to QB’s. Buffalo’s defense has improved but is still right in the middle vs. the pass and only slightly better versus the run.

I have to give the edge to the Ravens here who have the better defense and more complete offense. The only thing that could thwart Baltimore is if Justin Tucker botches another kick, something he’s done multiple times this year, because this one’s going to be a nail biter. So the Ravens should win, but like Lamar Jackson, it ain’t gonna be pretty.

Ravens 26 - Bills 24