Spread the Love: NFL Championship Round Picks Against the Spread
Best bets against the spread for NFL Championship Sunday
Good gracious was that a wild divisional round! Who saw the Commanders, a 9.5 point underdog, taking the Lions to the back of the woodshed to put them out of their misery by 14?! Football is as unpredictable and heartbreaking as ever. So what the holy heck am I doing back here breaking down games and picking winners? Am I a glutton for punishment? Probably!
In the divisional round, I went 0-3-1 against the spread. 3 losses and a tie. For what it’s worth, the tie was my “Best Bet” Rams getting 6. Not my most shining moment. You think I’d quit, but dammit, I love this game so much, I couldn’t wait for the Championship round spreads to post so I can jump right back in. Like that song by Chicago, the NFL is a “Hard Habit to Break”.
Since there are only two games this week, the breakdowns are a bit more in depth. I don’t have a “Best Bet” because these spreads are pretty tight. If you believe in me, bet along with me. If not, just do the opposite. It’s win-win!
All lines as of 5pm pacific time 1/22/25
WSH +6 @ PHI (O/U 47.5): NOBODY and I mean nobody had the Commanders beating the No. 1 seed Lions. This was Detroit’s year. The Commanders game was more of a formality for them. Sure, Washington made it past the Buccaneers, but the Lions were the anointed ones. Right? Not only did they cover the 9.5 point spread, Jayden Daniels and the Commanders flipped the script and whooped the Lions’ asses by 14. Can they keep the momentum going and beat the Philadelphia Eagles?
Washington has won 7 straight and one of those wins came Week 16, at home, versus the… wait for it… EAGLES. The only difference this time is that they are in Philly, not Washington. Also, the matchup where the Commanders won was when Jalen Hurts played just 12 snaps before getting concussed and leaving the game. So there’s that.
The Eagles are 10-1 at home. One of those 10 wins was versus the Commanders back in Week 11. A lot has happened over the 9 weeks since that happened though.
I would be looking for a let down for the Commanders, but the win in Detroit was not a close, emotional win. They literally commanded the tempo of the game and owned the Lions throughout. There’s no doubt that they can hang with the Eagles. Their defense is coming alive at just the right time and Jayden Daniels is connecting with not only Terry McLaurin (3 straight games with a TD), but he’s getting the forgotten Dyami Brown involved too. Brown has as many post-season catches as Scary Terry (11) and more yards than the vet (187 vs. 176).
Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler are both operating at full capacity as well, each topping 77+ yards from scrimmage in Detroit. Oh, by the way, Jayden Daniels ran for 51 yards on 16 carries versus the Lions.
All of that being said, Saquon Barkley is still a thing. Seeing him on the sidelines last week, he had that look of a man who will not be denied. Then he ran for a pair of touchdowns and 232 yards from scrimmage. It was his 8th game out of the last 9 where he ran for more than 100 yards. He’s 27 years old and operating at peak performance.
Barkley’s so good, Jalen Hurts doesn’t need to pass. Hurts threw for only 128 yards last week, while running for 70. That may have a lot to do with the fact that it was snowing balls in Philly, but still. As a result of all this running, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have a total of 11 catches for 100 yards in the postseason. That’s both of their totals combined. It gives Brown more time to read on the sidelines, sure, but that lack of offensive balance may bite the Eagles in their feathery asses.
The Eagles do have a great defense and are responsible for 3 of Jayden Daniels’ 9 interceptions on the season. So they have his number somewhat. If the Eagles can’t pace them offensively though, it won’t matter.
A week ago I would have easily asserted that the Eagles are the better team, but after what the Commanders did to Jared Goff and the Lions, I am not so sure. At the very least, I can’t give up 6 to a team that looked so complete. And if I am being honest, the Eagles looked a little shaky versus the Rams in the snow. They won, but they let Matt Stafford march the Rams down the field with two minutes left to almost sneak away with the upset.
The Eagles should win this at home and punch their ticket to the big game in a couple of weeks, but I will gladly take the points with Jayden Daniels and the more complete Washington Commanders.
Eagles 24 - Commanders 23
BUF +1.5 @ KC (O/U 48.5): Did Elon Musk throw up a N*zi salute at President Trump’s post inauguration rally? Depends on who you ask. If you want to believe he is a N*zi, you have video of his arm going from his chest to making a saluting gesture outward to the crowd. If you don’t want to believe it, you have the context of him jumping around awkwardly and throwing his hands up and saying “my heart goes out to you.” Either way, you see what you want to see. Just like the fans watching the refs in a Chiefs game.
NFL refs get within 100 yards of Patrick Mahomes and start throwing erroneous flags and missing blatant calls in favor of the Chiefs more often than not. If you are a Chiefs fan, you don’t see it or don’t care. If you are not a Chiefs fan, you see it over and over, possibly throwing your beer at the TV in the process. But the yellow flags/non-calls are there, regardless, for your interpretation, much like Elon’s arm. So the Bills, being in KC, with those refs, have an uphill battle.
The Chiefs are 9-0 at home this season. The Bills are 5-4 on the road. But the Bills did beat the Chiefs Week 11 in Buffalo. The question is can they get it done in Arrowhead? The answer is: Josh Allen.
Allen’s at the top of his game and has used his body to will the Bills to victory all year. In the Bills two playoff games he has totaled 399 air yards, 2 TD’s, plus 18 carries for 66 yards and 2 more TD’s. When he needed to pass to win vs the Broncos, he did. When he needed more runs vs the Ravens, he did that. They don’t have a true number one receiver because they don’t need one. Josh Allen can spread it out at will or run/hand off when needed (James Cook has 202 yards from scrimmage in 2 playoff games).
The Chiefs have found ways to win all season, but haven’t needed to look flashy doing it because their defense has been lights out (Chris Jones!). Cut to the playoffs and Travis Kelce comes out of nowhere to go 7-117-1 versus Houston. What? The guy had ONE 100 yard game all season, way back in Week 9 versus Tampa Bay. The absurd thing is Patrick Mahomes only threw for 177 yards versus the Texans. So Kelce caught more than 60% of Mahomes’ pass yards after being almost invisible all season long.
With Mahomes not throwing a lot of passes, they will continue to rely on their run game and defense. The Bills are 24th against the run, so Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco should move the ball. But how will the defense fare versus Josh Allen and James Cook?
KC is good at pressuring the QB. They sacked poor CJ Stroud 8x last week. But Josh Allen is bigger (20 pounds and 2 inches bigger to be exact) and, dare I say, more elusive. In the Bills first two playoff rounds, Josh has faced the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens, two teams who know how to get to the QB. They are number 1 and 2 respectively in sacks per game this season. Josh took a total of just 3 sacks over those two matchups. He should be fine in KC.
The Chiefs could 3-peat. They are favored, they have the home field, the refs, but they do not have Josh Allen.
The Bills are 0-3 versus the Chiefs in the playoffs. I think this is the year they break on through to the other side.
Take the points and ride with the Bills mafia, who will upset the refs, the KC fans, and the Chiefs.
Bills 27 - Chiefs 25