NDL Sunday Morning Scroll: No Bye, Bye, Bye
It does not feel like Sunday. It feels like the fourth Sunday in a row. Thursday was Thanksgiving, which meant football and eating all day. So that felt like Sunday. Then Friday had more football and food (leftovers) so THAT felt like Sunday. By Saturday I was dead ass tired from the two days prior so I was lazy so THAT felt like Sunday. And now today is actually Sunday and we have an entire day of football again. Plus I have to put up Christmas decorations. I’m burnt yo. I bet the guys playing in the NFL are burnt too.
Roger Goodell gave no teams in the NFL a bye this week so nobody had a break. That bastard. Well, if those guys don’t get a break then I won’t give myself one either.
How about a breakdown of every remaining NFL game with my pick against the spread? I released part one of this on Thanksgiving, so here are the… wait for it… leftovers!
Enjoy!
SEA -1 @ NYJ: This season probably feels like a bad Ayahuasca trip to the Jets fans. Fear not, gang green, it’s almost over. Don’t tell that to Aaron Rodgers though. The Jets need him to keep tanking so they can draft a better QB in April. This week should be another step closer to that goal. Aaron Rodgers has been a nightmare to pick for and against this season. I have gotten it wrong every time, but this is my week. Why? Because it’s the Geno Smith revenge game! The Jets may have Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson, but the Seahawks have DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has been on a tear of late, catching 23 passes for 367 yards and 3 scores over his last 3 matchups. Garrett Wilson wishes he had those numbers. Geno has been playing with such emotion this season (literally in tears at one point during the San Francisco win) and Aaron Rodgers has been playing with the emotion of an accountant. If Geno can protect the ball (his TD to INT ratio is 12:12), the Seahawks should handily beat the Jets, even on the road. Geno should be at home at MetLife. He played there for 5 years (4 with the Jets, 1 with the Giants). Look for the Seahawks to cover and for Geno Smith to have a glorious homecoming.
Seahawks 22 - Jets 19
PIT +3 @ CIN: The Bengals are coming off a bye and the Steelers are coming off a mini-bye as they last played Thursday in the snow. This over under of 47 seems high considering this divisional matchup at this time of year doesn’t usually equal lots of points, but these are not your grandfather’s Steelers and Bengals. Russell Wilson has been slinging the ball since his return from injury. He was able to pass for 270 yards in the snow in their loss to the Browns. It’s going to be cold in Cincinnati on Sunday, but crystal clear. The Bengals love giving up air yards so look for a lot of passing from Wilson. PIttsburgh's defense is 9th overall, but their pass defense is right in the middle. So look for a lot of passing from Joe Burrow, who has been locked in this year. The Steelers, coming off that upset in Cleveland should come to play, but if they play more toward their mean, Burrow should unload on them. Seeing as the Bengals are home, I am laying the 3 points.
Bengals 26 - Steelers 22
IND -2.5 @ NE: I love what Drake Maye has done so far. He looks like a player that will only get better and should be a Patriot for the foreseeable future. That being said, the Patriots defense took a turn last week and looked every bit of their 30th overall NFL ranking. Anthony Richardson had trouble with accuracy last week versus a Detroit Lions team that can put decent pressure on the QB. The Patriots don’t have that luxury. With time Anthony Richardson should be more accurate in the air. He rushed for 60 yards last week and should do more of the same in Foxborough. The Pats are in the bottom half on run defense. Jonathan Taylor should hit the century mark in this one if they feed him. The Colts D is nothing to write home about either, but I am betting that the Colts simply have more fire power. Lay the wood.
Colts 23 - Patriots 20
ARI +3.5 @ MIN: The Arizona Cardinals are like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get. Marvin Harrison has all but disappeared from the game plan since his week 8 breakout of 6-111-1. Trey McBride has been busy (15 targets last week), but has yet to catch a TD this season. James Conner has four 100 yard games so far, but only carried the ball seven times for 8 yards last week. Kyler Murray can throw, he can run, but he’s streaky. He has one pass TD in his last three matchups, and hasn’t rushed for more than 21 yards in his last four. Like I said, you never know what you’re going to get. On the road, in Minnesota, I am betting we are going to get a whole lot of nada. Or to keep with the box of chocolates analogy, we’ll get that gooey, cherry jam filled, overly sweet piece that nobody eats. The Minnesota Vikings are in a must win situation every week due to their being in the uber-competitive NFC North. They are the best in the NFL versus the run, so Kyler has to beat them with his arm. Will he? And can he keep up with the Vikings' wide variety of weapons? I say no.
Vikings 25 - Cardinals 20
TEN +6 @ WAS: *BEST BET* Dallas coming into the Commanders’ house and upsetting them had to sting. I think they’ll bounce back versus a Tennessee team that should have a let down after having an upset of their own in Houston last week. Jayden Daniels had slowed down a bit after his rib injury in October, but last week he looked back to 100. He not only passed for 275 yards and 2 scores, but he ran the ball for 74 yards and another score. He hadn’t had more than 52 rush yards since week 5 prior to last week. Tennessee can’t be run on, usually, but you can throw on them all day, which is good since one of Washington’s key rushers is now on IR (sad face, Austin Ekeler). As for Daniels, with the dual threat ability once again unlocked, this should be a get right spot for him and the Commanders. Look for another big day from Terry McClaurin too. Commanders should easily cover.
Commanders 26 - Titans 19
LAC -1.5 @ ATL: The Chargers sorely underperformed their defensive metrics versus Baltimore. I don’t think that was a Charger problem, I think it was that Baltimore is a different team with Derrick Henry. The Los Angeles defense should move back toward par as they travel to Atlanta. Kirk Cousins wasn’t able to throw a touchdown pass in his last two matchups and is now coming off the bye. Darnell Mooney exited their last contest with a hamstring injury, an injury that tends to linger even if Mooney plays this week. The Chargers are dealing with an injury to a key piece of the offense as well. JK Dobbins exited the Ravens game with a knee injury and is now on IR. Gus Edwards is good, but he is no JK Dobbins. They’ll likely ask Gus to protect the ball above all else, and lean on the passing game. Justin Herbert has been letting it fly lately and even though he struggled against the worst defense on paper (Ravens), I am betting he will right the ship in Atlanta versus a Falcons team that isn’t far from the bottom in pass defense.
Chargers 24 - Falcons 22
HOU -4 @ JAX: Is Jacksonville still playing in the NFL? They had their bye week and I forgot they were still a professional football team. I am out on Trevor Lawrence. I am out on Travis Etienne. I am out on Evan Engram. I am out on the Jags. Houston was just embarrassed at home versus the Titans. Let’s bet on a bounce back. Nico Collins scored last week and looks healthy as a Texas longhorn. Joe Mixon didn’t get much going against the Titans last week, but nobody does. He’ll get back on track in Jax. CJ Stroud, while he has definitely taken a step back, should be able to handle the baby soft Jaguar defense. I hate taking a road favorite, but that’s how much I am OUT on Jacksonville.
Texans 27 - Jaguars 17
TB -5.5 @ CAR: Baker Mayfield is having a career year. His 71.4 completion percentage should show you how dialed in he is. The Bucs are top ten and in some cases top five in all pertinent offensive categories and that has a lot to do with how efficient Baker has been. He and the Bucs travel to Carolina this week to face a fellow first overall pick in Bryce Young and the “we almost beat the Chiefs” Panthers. Let’s be real, Carolina does not have the offensive weapons that Tampa Bay has. The Panthers are in for a let down, even though the Tampa Bay defense is just as bad as Carolinas. The difference will be in the QB’s. Bryce Young is not as efficient with a 60% completion rate and only 6.5 YPA, a recipe for low offensive output. Tampa Bay should break away as the game goes on and cover.
Buccaneers 27 - Panthers 20
LAR -2.5 @ NOR: Fool me once, shame on Derek Carr. Fool me twice, shame on anyone picking against him. I didn’t think his connection with Marquez Valdes-Scantling was the real thing, but he did it again before the bye, connecting for a 71 yard TD. The New Orleans defense has been pretty stingy of late too, holding the Falcons and Browns to 14 and 17 points respectively. The Rams have been up and down on both sides of the ball. Since his duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned week 8, he has averaged 281.6 yards per game. I can see why the Rams are favored, but the Saints are a different animal at home. I wouldn’t bet on this game IRL, but for the purposes of this article, I’ll take the points.
Rams 26 - Saints 24
PHI +3 @ BAL: The worst passing defense was able to hold Justin Herbert to 218 scoreless pass yards. That may have had more to do with JK Dobbins’ exit than anything else. Once that dynamic was lost, the Ravens teed off. I don’t see them doing that against the Eagles, who have been dialed in. Saquon Barkley is on pace to break the rushing record and is coming off a game where he scored two 70+ yard TD’s. The Ravens will have their hands full. They are stout against the run, but this Philadelphia run game is not normal. Derrick Henry is also not normal, nor is Lamar Jackson. I want to give this to the home team based on those two young men, but Philadelphia has been too good and their defense is the best in the league. I gotta hold my honker and take the road dogs. Give me the Eagles, who will upset Baltmore outright.
Eagles 28 - Ravens 24
SF +6 @ BUF: *BEST BET* There are no teams on a bye this week, but San Francisco is probably wishing they were. Brock Purdy is saying he has a “sore” right shoulder, but I think it’s a smoke screen. He had an MRI on it last week and had UCL surgery on the same arm in 2023. If the 9’ers have to rock out with their Brock out again, they are cooked. If he plays on a bum shoulder, they are really cooked. Buffalo is coming off a huge win over the Chiefs and have had a week to rest on their laurels. There is no scenario where Josh Allen and the Bills overlook this matchup. They are home and they want that one seed. Bills Mafia will be out in droves and guess what? It’s gonna be snowing. A football game in Western New York, in December, with snow flurries. Is there a better setting for a Bills rout? You can bet they will be up for this and I will bet that they’ll take San Francisco by double digits, Brock or no Brock.
Bills 28 - 49’ers 18
CLE +5.5 @ DEN: Jameis Winston was asked about the difficulty of playing in the rain and his answer was to thank God for letting him play in great football weather in Cleveland Ohio in front of thousands of fans. If you believe in God, you get it. If you are an atheist, you still have to get it. You have control of two things in any situation: Your attitude and your effort. Jameis Winston’s faith is keeping both of those in positive territory. That being said, they are traveling to Denver to face a surging Broncos team that has been dialed in on defense and offense. They are one of the best in the league defending the pass and Bo Nix has thrown multiple TD’s in the last three games, all the while protecting the ball. His TD:INT ratio in that span is 8:0. The Browns can put pressure, they have the ninth highest blitz rate at 28.8%, but Brock has been making good decisions with the football so he should handle that well. The Browns are bad at forcing turnovers too (-7 differential), which also bodes well for Denver (+2). I love the heart of Jameis, but I have to bet on the home team here. Take the Broncos to cover and enjoy the Monday night battle under God’s glorious mile high sky.
Broncos 24 - Browns 18
Enjoy the games!